Which online games are most likely to win?

An analysis of online gambling games focusing on luck, skill, RTP, and the highest winning odds, revealing Blackjack and video poker as most favorable.

Casino enthusiasts eagerly sit in front of their screens to enjoy and get thrilled with their favorite online games. Entertainment is indeed the primary motivation, but along with that, there is naturally the dream of winning. With this article, we aim to clarify the nature of different gambling games and the winning odds each of them offers to players. This way, we’ll better understand which online games are more favorable for players and in which games the winning odds are higher.

The role of luck in different types of games

When discussing gambling, it’s necessary to make some preliminary distinctions. First, it’s important to note that almost all games – including casino games – are played against the house. This means that you’re playing against the casino or a bookmaker, which reserves a certain mathematical advantage, including its profit margin. On the other hand, there’s a minority of games that take place directly among players, with the house providing, in a sense, the “rental” of the gaming platform.

The other fundamental distinction – somewhat connected to the first – is the different roles luck plays based on the type of game.

Types of games based on luck and skill

Pure luck-based games

These are games where the player has no control over the outcome of events, which depend exclusively on chance. This category includes slot machines, traditional lotteries, instant lotteries, Roulette, Bingo. For instance, in slot machines, how the player clicks doesn’t matter; in Bingo, one just waits for numbers to be drawn without any way to influence the outcome.

Luck-based games with a skill component

These are predominantly chance-based games, but where the player’s conduct significantly impacts the outcome. Examples include sports betting and Blackjack. While in the first type of games player’s conduct is irrelevant, in this second type, employing sensible strategies can shift the balance in the player’s favor. For instance, betting on a low odds event has a very different winning expectation compared to betting on an exact result at 100.00 odds.

High skill component games

These are games that always have a random base, but where strategic choices and probabilistic estimations of opponents’ behavior can lead to an economic advantage. Poker online and backgammon fall into this category. In poker, for example, you can limit your opponent’s range of possible moves based on their gameplay characteristics and thus make decisions that lead to an economic advantage in the long run.

What does RTP mean in online games and why is it important?

Beyond the distinctions between games based on the amount of luck involved, how can we determine which games retain more money for their organizers and which are more generous to their players? This is where RTP comes in. RTP stands for Return to Player.

Excluding the house advantage, the rest returns to the players’ pockets, more or less lucky depending on the case. Clearly, in a single game or a single session, anything could happen. But considering a high number of plays, it’s possible to determine precisely the percentage that returns to the player’s pocket compared to the total amount spent. With this understanding, let’s immediately analyze the games with the highest winning odds.

It should be noted that the RTP considers all winnings, including those that players often reinvest in the game. Think of a slot machine where you win the same amount as your bet, or perhaps a fraction of it. Or a €1 scratch card where you win a €1 prize, which you’ll likely use to buy another.

Ranking of the highest winning odds in games

We’ve ranked games based on RTP, starting with the highest. These are therefore the games that, assuming a very high number of plays, return the highest percentage of the money spent to the player.

  1. Single Deck Blackjack Pro: 99.83%
  2. Classic Blackjack: 99.56%
  3. Jacks or Better video poker: 99.56%
  4. Baccarat: 98.94%
  5. Punto Banco Pro: 98.92%
  6. European Roulette: 97.3%
  7. Poker Texas Hold’em (cash game): 96.32%
  8. American Roulette: 94.74%
  9. Slot machines: 90% (legal minimum)
  10. Scopa: 85.44%
  11. Poker Texas Hold’em (tournament): 84.78%
  12. Burraco: 84.31%
  13. Dice: 83.3%
  14. Bingo: 70%

Most convenient online casino games

Let’s now see which games appear to be the most convenient. In this regard, RTP is one of the criteria to keep an eye on but not the only one. It’s also necessary to delve into the various types of games and understand which can entertain us longer, perhaps with low-risk bets. For instance, in blackjack, card counting – a practice harshly opposed by land casinos – can reduce the already small house advantage and almost turn it into a skill game. Anyway, we’re talking about an RTP of over 99%, so even with basic strategies that do not include card counting, and solid spending discipline, one can enjoy long sessions.

With discipline and a low-risk betting strategy, roulette enthusiasts can also have fun, one of the most appreciated online casino games. In roulette, the mathematical house edge is about 2.7%. Inevitable, since there’s the inevitable zero (sometimes double) to throw off the calculations of what could otherwise be an evenly balanced game. The calculations are simple. All this means that the RTP percentage exceeds 97%. Thus, the probabilities in roulette seem really advantageous. In the long term, of course, a roulette player might experience highs and lows, but they can guarantee long sessions with low-risk strategies such as outside bets, i.e., red/black, odd/even, high/low. In all these, the winning percentage is around 50%.

Slot machines and other games

If there’s one popular game in casinos, it’s the slot machines. As you have read, the minimum legal percentage to be returned to the player is 90%. However, the vast majority of those in the digital game catalogs have RTPs higher than 95%, and in some cases, even much higher. For more information, it’s always very useful to read our reviews on online slots available in the digital game catalog.

Bingo is another very popular and fun game, with a relatively low RTP but other types of advantages. Even in its online version, it is a very social game, where you can chat with other players and spend time carefreely between one game and another, and without spending significant amounts.

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